An Analysis of Teacher Choices : Transfers , Attrition , and Retirement

It is a common misperception that low teacher recruitment is the cause of the current teacher shortage in the United States. Research over the past decade suggests, however, that the source of the shortage is high levels of staffing fluctuations driven by teacher attrition. This paper examines the factors underlying teacher attrition decisions in order to make policy recommendations about which retention policies are likely to successfully reduce teacher attrition. Using pooled cross-sectional data from the Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS) and attrition decisions from the Teacher Follow-up Survey (TFS) of the same teachers one year later, we employ a multinomial logistic model to estimate the parameters associated with three kinds of teacher attrition: school transfer, exit from the profession, and retirement. The parameter estimates are used to simulate survival functions and approximate differences in teacher retention over a 15 year time horizon. The results indicate that salary is not a significant determinant of exit attrition despite its attention as an important policy tool. Additionally, although salary is a statistically significant determinant of transfer attrition, the size of the effect does not indicate that salary is an efficient or cost-effective solution to the attrition problem. Administrative support problems, student-teacher racial/ethnic matching, and school level (elementary or secondary), however, are statistically and economically important determinants of teacher attrition, indicating that teacher retention policies and incentive plans would benefit from incorporating these factors.  Corresponding author: [email protected]; 6000 J Street, Sacramento, CA 95819-6082.